The panicking variant of Omicron may actually be a godsend and will accelerate the end of the new crown pandemic
In the past few days, the new and more spreading variant Omicron has caused panic around the world. But the actual situation may be exactly the opposite of what most ordinary people think. If nothing else, the new variant of the new crown, Omicron, will accelerate the end of the epidemic worldwide.
Why?
Because for millions of years, the way humans have defeated viruses is almost without exception: herd immunity
Relying on herd immunity, humans have defeated 99.999% of the virus (the only thing that has not been defeated is HIV, because it is a retrovirus, which is a special case; but I believe that technology will eventually defeat it soon).
The way to achieve herd immunity is nothing more than a combination of vaccine and virus infection, both of which can generate antibodies in the body, which can later be immunized against viruses. Therefore, vaccination is not the ultimate goal, but a means to achieve the ultimate goal (herd immunity) , The least costly means. Compared with direct infection with the virus, vaccination reduces the cost of achieving herd immunity by 10 times or 100 times.
Essentially, viruses and vaccines have one thing in common, that is, they can make the body produce antibodies.
You can think of vaccines as "viruses" with very low toxicity (side effects), or as "vaccines" with relatively large side effects. For example, fire-fighting vaccines are inactive viruses, adenovirus vaccines are castrated viruses, and mRNA vaccines are instructions for synthesizing viral synaptic proteins. It can be said that viruses and vaccines are essentially the same, with only differences in the degree of side effects (toxicity). If Omicron’s symptoms are much milder, it is a natural vaccine, a zero-cost, automatic distribution, and automatic vaccine. The fast-running Omicron can precede its Delta brothers and spread to the crowd, allowing people to produce antibodies, and these antibodies are also effective against Delta.
This is not a novel. This is the real situation that humans have faced with almost every virus in history: in the middle and late stages of the epidemic, the fast-spreading and low-toxic variants of the virus acted as the "viral invaders", giving people the first step to be valuable. When the truly lethal virus army is late, herd immunity has been established, and the epidemic has quickly ended.
Of course, this depends on a key factor: Omicron's toxicity.
If Omicron's toxicity is much lower than Delta, then it is a lovely angel; on the contrary, if its toxicity is equal to or higher than Delta, then it is a terrible demon. One step angel, one step demon.
Preliminary news shows that Omicron's symptoms are much milder than Delta. It needs to be confirmed. There should be a clear conclusion within a few weeks. Let's wait and see.
Postscript:
In fact, herd immunity is not to eliminate the virus, but to form immunity to the virus, which can coexist with the virus safely. The only virus that humans have eliminated so far is smallpox. Other viruses coexist with humans, but there is no longer an epidemic. Foreign studies have found that the new crown has spread to many wild animals (such as deer), and it is almost impossible to completely eliminate them.
Blocking in the early and mid-term of the epidemic is also a means to achieve herd immunity, rather than the ultimate goal. If the virus is blocked all the time, it is equivalent to delaying the realization of herd immunity (vaccination alone is not enough), just like blocking a super-high water level reservoir, you need to continue to pay huge amounts of money to repair the tiny gaps that continue to emerge on the dam. cost.
Both Israel and Singapore have decisively released the blockade and let the virus help complete the last step of herd immunity when sufficient vaccinations (mainly mRNA vaccines) were inoculated. Unsurprisingly, there was a short period of surge in the epidemic. But soon Israel is close to zero this month, and Singapore is also rapidly decreasing.
The United States originally had the epidemic approaching its end before Delta appeared at the end of June. Delta caused the second wave of the epidemic, but now it has also reached a turning point and entered a rapid decline, which indicates that herd immunity is approaching.
What is surprising is that in India, the epidemic has dropped to the bottom when the vaccination rate is average. It is said that more than 97% of the population in India already have COVID-19 antibodies, which means that Indians have achieved this by directly embracing the virus. Herd immunity; Brazil now has similar signs, and the epidemic continues to decline rapidly.
The UK has fallen behind. As one of the first countries to complete vaccination, after Delta came, the number of new cases per day in the past few months has continued to be high. It is possible that the Oxford vaccine (AstraZeneca) is far less protective of Delta than the mRNA vaccine, and the UK mainly promotes its own Oxford vaccine, which causes most British people to take the Oxford vaccine and only a small part of Pfizer mRNA. On the road to achieving herd immunity, compared with countries that focus on mRNA vaccines, Britain is now paying more for its national vanity.
It is impossible to realize herd immunity without paying the price. It is just a matter of sooner or later and how much it costs. A good vaccine + a virus with high transmission and low toxicity can make the price paid the lowest. Now Omicron may be the best gift from heaven.
